At the Moscow Conference on International Security, Igor Kostyukov, head of Russia’s military intelligence (RuMoD), accused Washington of deliberately obstructing Russian defense exports in the Asia-Pacific. He claimed the U.S. is pressuring regional governments with sanctions threats to derail contracts ranging from India’s S-400 to Indonesia’s Su-35s and Vietnam’s fighter procurements.
Russian arms sales have collapsed since the Ukraine war. According to SIPRI, exports fell by 53% between 2014–2018 and 2019–2023. Deliveries worth $14.6 billion in 2021 dropped below $1 billion by 2024.
Meanwhile, U.S. and European defense firms are expanding. Indonesia abandoned the Su-35 deal and pivoted to F-15EX and Rafale jets, while also joining Türkiye’s KAAN fighter program. The Philippines canceled Mi-171 helicopters in favor of Chinooks, and Vietnam is considering U.S. F-16s—potentially ending Moscow’s long-standing dominance in its defense market.
Beyond Asia, precedents include Türkiye’s expulsion from the F-35 program after acquiring the S-400, and Egypt’s cancellation of Su-35 purchases under U.S. pressure.
Looking ahead, Russia is unlikely to reverse the decline. Africa and Latin America remain fallback options, but demand is limited. Experts warn that unless sanctions ease or Russian production recovers, the long-term trend points to shrinking Russian influence and growing U.S.–European dominance in global arms trade.
